Ok, I honestly don't really care if anyone reads this...its purely for me to track my ideas and have a long term valuation record. I'm going to try to update a company a day, simple ideas from screens or 10K readings. Ideally I'd like to place some sort of value and enter into positions upon them reaching. I figure this to be just short of impossible though so at the very least I'll simply chart my portfolio and continue valuation.
As of today the market is fairly overvalued in my opinion. CAPE is sitting at a robust 23.6. I bet (very sparingly) that the market will continue to rise. With that said, the one thing I have learned over the past several months is that the right selection hedges against both up and downside risk. That is, there have been numerous days I have continued to outpace the broad indices based on buying stocks with limited downside risk. This has then continued to aid me as my upside has beaten the broad market, despite a 50% cash position.
Idea's are few and far between. I'm warming up to small positions in LEE, IDCC, and well thats about it. A lot of screens trying to look for great cash cows (OSV, MFI, etc) show mostly cyclicals. Looking at the high earnings yields coupled with extensive other indications I think this has to be close to the top of this bull market.
Michael Burry stated that low PE's in cyclicals are almost always market tops, and on top of that I feel analysts are starting to push cyclicals simply based off of the low PE's. I'll write up some more tomorrow. Peace future Ian.
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